SOFI

SoFi keeps compounding the franchise and the market pays for it again. 2027 rate cuts lower deposit costs and NIM holds near 6%. Federal Grad PLUS caps push graduate borrowers to private lenders, and asset growth runs 28% easing to 12%. Operating leverage lifts net margin to ~26%, taking net income to ~$3.0B by 2031. The Q3 fair-value mark stays contained, so growth is funded from earnings without another raise. At an 18× exit, our bull PT is $24.53.

Rates stay high and SoFi earns like a mid-tier bank. Deposits reprice above a fixed-rate loan book and NIM slides to 5.0%. Personal-loan credit worsens as federal student-loan collections restart, holding net margin at 13–15%. A ~$750M after-tax Q3 mark dents capital, and loan growth keeps absorbing equity, so another raise becomes likely. ROE stalls near 8%, below a 12.46% cost of equity, and the stock trades under tangible book. At a 12× exit, our bear PT is $5.66.