UWMC

America's largest wholesale lender trades at 1.5x tangible book because a hedge for a deal that never closed cost it half its equity in one quarter. The loss isn't operating: volume is at a two-year high, gain margin of 133 bps is the best since 2021, and Q2 earned ~$275M pre-tax ex the hedge and MSR mark. Base: adjusted net income to $650M, $1.75. Bull: a 2021-style refi wave, $3.56. You don't need rates to fall, you need adjusted net income above $362M.

The common no longer owns the business outright. It sits behind $1.65B of 10-13% preferred, 330M warrants and whatever the rights backstop takes, and the stock trades below the $2.00 rights floor. Bear case: adjusted net income of only $200-300M, volume flat near $160B, margin back to 110 bps, 7x exit, for $0.46. Covenant misses would hand Oaktree the board. All eyes on November 12 and the Q3 print.